Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 10.502873 12.053192 13.727764 15.667764 17.850044 20.225580 23.003791
2025-05-04 8.154030 10.228577 12.647681 15.663883 19.309713 23.559295 28.871716
2025-05-11 6.816449 9.061078 11.811224 15.404564 19.948804 25.475041 32.671374
2025-05-18 5.914741 8.281487 11.311740 15.437847 20.865634 27.712674 36.946391
2025-05-25 5.283902 7.739846 11.006247 15.613975 21.881713 30.036201 41.359610
2025-06-01 4.705248 7.189167 10.611706 15.599735 22.595943 31.957117 45.304163
2025-06-08 4.183021 6.650746 10.165775 15.446730 23.066898 33.529332 48.811237
2025-06-15 3.821865 6.303471 9.947569 15.576176 23.909177 35.618869 53.096317
2025-06-22 3.594478 6.130874 9.960291 16.025474 25.214896 38.399316 58.460962
2025-06-29 3.243464 5.726591 9.583747 15.851040 25.571691 39.813479 61.907198
2025-07-06 2.805429 5.135804 8.864729 15.086464 24.972354 39.770813 63.186043
2025-07-13 2.652728 5.004469 8.861093 15.437753 26.096092 42.332383 68.437351
2025-07-20 2.492751 4.850380 8.815145 15.728219 27.158604 44.881408 73.839403
2025-07-27 2.278565 4.579531 8.551846 15.639689 27.604041 46.494688 77.874405
2025-08-03 2.064972 4.286614 8.223334 15.409740 27.789983 47.688135 81.278082
2025-08-10 1.912998 4.093271 8.051871 15.432898 28.389897 49.558704 85.825199
2025-08-17 1.798312 3.959752 7.975228 15.612542 29.257056 51.891107 91.202373
2025-08-24 1.667196 3.780240 7.798638 15.597062 29.778755 53.666952 95.729906
2025-08-31 1.530848 3.575922 7.558082 15.444509 30.043464 55.013374 99.585801
2025-09-07 1.440761 3.458684 7.473838 15.573788 30.811612 57.236678 104.990556
2025-09-14 1.393615 3.428601 7.556820 16.023078 32.179618 60.542556 112.358257
2025-09-21 1.283104 3.248352 7.325763 15.848649 32.383882 61.822325 116.276551
2025-09-28 1.124412 2.942484 6.813623 15.084183 31.435270 61.015126 116.509356